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Flight plan · retirement descent v3

Asset-mix-driven returns, dual-account tax modeling, historical shock presets, and a 500-path Monte Carlo band.

What this tells you

The question it answers: will my money last through retirement, and how much risk am I taking as I get older?

You enter

  • Your starting portfolio and yearly spending
  • How your spending and investment mix change in three retirement phases: Go-go (active years), Slow-go and No-go
  • Your tax settings

You get

  • Your balance year by year for 45 years
  • A range of 500 possible market outcomes, not just one guess
  • What a bad market early in retirement does to your plan
  • The effect of taxes across a taxable and a retirement account
  • A monthly expense budget

Keep in mind

  • It uses your assumptions. It doesn't predict markets or pick investments.
  • For an illustration to discuss with a CPA or planner, not advice.
Bear
Base
Bull
Custom
Portfolio & withdrawal phases
Go-go
Slow-go
No-go
Tax treatment

Remaining % (not tax-deferred or taxable) is treated as tax-free, e.g. Roth. Tax-deferred withdrawals taken before age 59½ carry a 10% early-withdrawal penalty on top of ordinary income tax, applied as a flat addition to the blended rate for those years only.

Asset return assumptions — drives the glide path below

Bear / Base / Bull set these six expected annual returns at once. Volatility per asset class is fixed (shown alongside) and used for the shock and Monte Carlo math. Edit any slider to switch to Custom.

20%
25%
9%
4.5%
8%
3%
Bitcoin Power Law model — overrides BTC & MSTR returns per phase
1.5x

Power law: Price = 1.0117×10⁻¹⁷ × (days since Jan 3, 2009)^5.82 (Santostasi/Burger fit, R²≈0.956). MSTR price modeled as BTC-per-share × power-law BTC price × mNAV premium; BTC-per-share compounds annually at the yield above (linearly interpolated 2026→2030, flat after). Both ends of every phase use the model's own price, so this doesn't need today's actual spot price — only the calendar dates.

Power law override is off — BTC and MSTR use the flat sliders above for every phase.
Portfolio mix & return glide path — de-risking by phase

Set the asset mix for each phase. Blended return, volatility, and BTC+MSTR concentration are computed live from the weights and the return assumptions above.

Go-go mix
10%
5%
45%
10%
25%
5%
Blended return: 9.9% · Volatility: 15.0% · Weight sum: 100% · BTC+MSTR concentration: 15%
Slow-go mix
5%
3%
45%
15%
27%
5%
Blended return: 8.8% · Volatility: 12.1% · Weight sum: 100% · BTC+MSTR concentration: 8%
No-go mix
2%
1%
35%
30%
22%
10%
Blended return: 7.2% · Volatility: 8.5% · Weight sum: 100% · BTC+MSTR concentration: 3%
Sequence-of-returns stress test
Portfolio balance over 45 years
Smooth average
Instrument readouts
Total span
45 yrs
Smooth balance at touchdown
$112.2M
Smooth depletion
None
Lifetime tax drag (smooth)
$9.8M
Monthly expense budget · every amount below is per month
Mortgage / housing
$2,100
Utilities & home upkeep
$400
Insurance
$650
Medical / healthcare
$500
Food & groceries
$750
Transportation
$400
Travel budget
$1,250
Entertainment & hobbies
$400
Giving / charitable
$400
Miscellaneous
$350
Other
$0

GG / SG / NG checkboxes control whether each expense applies during Go-Go, Slow-Go, or No-Go. Uncheck a box to drop that expense out of that phase entirely — e.g. travel is unchecked for No-Go by default.

Go-go expenses
Baseline — the sliders above, minus any unchecked categories.
Slow-go adjustment
-10%
No-go adjustment
+15%
Baseline monthly expenses (Go-Go, selected)
$87K
Go-Go vs. expenses
Monthly expenses
$87K
Monthly income
$17K
Shortfall
$70K
Expenses as % of income
522%
Slow-Go vs. expenses
Monthly expenses
$78K
Monthly income
$15K
Shortfall
$63K
Expenses as % of income
522%
No-Go vs. expenses
Monthly expenses
$83K
Monthly income
$13K
Shortfall
$69K
Expenses as % of income
621%

Simplified planning model. Nominal returns, straight-line inflation. Blended returns and volatility come from the asset weights you set combined with fixed per-asset volatility assumptions and a fixed correlation matrix — real correlations shift in crises (usually toward 1.0, which understates joint drawdowns here). The Monte Carlo band uses a normal distribution per year, which understates the fat tails and multi-year momentum real BTC/MSTR/equity markets show. The dual-account tax model is a flat-rate approximation of ordinary income and LTCG/NIIT treatment — it does not model bracket-filling, state tax, or SEPP/72(t) elections. Ignores Social Security. Every scenario here is illustrative, not predictive — take these numbers to your CPA and advisor before acting on them.